ExecutiveOrdersEO
DetDeterminationTrump 45 · R Quiet signal

Presidential Determination

Presidential Determination on Major Drug Transit or Major Illicit Drug Producing Countries for Fiscal Year 2021

This determination identifies 22 countries as major drug transit or illicit drug producing countries for FY2021 and designates Bolivia and the Maduro regime in Venezuela as having 'failed demonstrably' to meet international counternarcotics obligations. It includes conditional threats to maintain or escalate designations based on future performance, particularly for Mexico.

Federal Register Open PDF 85 FR 60351

Impact dates

  1. Colombia shared goal to reduce coca cultivation and cocaine production by half

  2. Bolivia may be removed from next year's failed demonstrably list if sufficient steps taken

  3. Mexico must demonstrate substantial progress in coming year to avoid failed demonstrably designation

Key directives

  • Identify 22 countries as major drug transit or major illicit drug producing countries
  • Designate Bolivia as having failed demonstrably to adhere to international counternarcotics obligations
  • Designate Maduro regime in Venezuela as having failed demonstrably
  • Determine that U.S. programs supporting Venezuelan interim government and Bolivian government are vital to national interests
  • Submit designation with memoranda of justification to Congress
  • Publish determination in Federal Register

Who is ordered

Timeline

Immediate

  • Bolivia and Venezuela 'failed demonstrably' designations take effect
  • List of 22 major drug transit/producing countries published

Near term (90d)

  • Congressional submission of designation with justifications
  • Federal Register publication

Long term

  • Potential removal of Bolivia from next year's list if conditions met
  • Mexico at risk of 'failed demonstrably' designation in FY2022 absent progress
  • Colombia 2023 coca/cocaine reduction goal assessment

Risks & tensions

  • Conditional threat to Mexico creates diplomatic pressure but vague 'substantial progress' standard lacks specificity
  • Bolivia designation appears designed to influence post-transitional government behavior
  • Venezuela designation conflates counter-narcotics policy with regime change objectives
  • National interest waiver for Bolivia and Venezuela (section 706(3)(A)) preserves aid despite designations, blunting punitive effect
Presidential Determination: Presidential Determination on Major Drug Transit or Major Illicit Drug Producing Countries for Fiscal Year 2021 · Executive Orders